Gold Regime Tracker

Structural regime monitor for a physical holder — trend confirmation, not a trading signal.
assessment
2026-06-22
TRANSITION / WATCH
$4,144
Macro gate: HAWKISH  ·  Confidence 80% (fraction of fresh rows agreeing)
Recommendation: Review only. Do not transact. Re-check after next CB_BID print.
Illustrative data: the price series is a stylised reconstruction, not live gold prices. Import real history with fetch price --file and re-run export-web to recompute the chart and analysis.
MACRO hawkish: REGIME votes weighted UP (scenario that can break two legs at once).

Price · secular trend channel · swing support & resistance

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000ATH $5,414 · 2026-01support $2,240 · 2024-112023202420252026
weekly close log-trend ±2σ channel resistance / ATH support
Nearest resistance (swing high)
$5,414
2026-01-30
Nearest support (swing low)
$2,241
2024-11-01
All-time high
$5,414
2026-01-30
Support/resistance are price pivots — levels where price actually turned — not σ-bands.
Secular trend (log-fit)
$4,626
Upper band (descriptive only)
$5,736
Lower band (descriptive only)
$3,731
Trend
+41%/yr
Price is in the lower third of its long-run channel; the secular trend is rising (~41%/yr). (157 weekly closes, ~3.0y)
Residual autocorrelation is high (0.97): the trend is non-linear over this window (a flat stretch then a sharp acceleration and reversal), so these bounds are descriptive geometry, not a 2.5% tail. Do not treat them as actionable levels — use the swing support/resistance below for that.

Indicator rows

IndicatorStateValueRuleAs-of
MM_NET TRANSITION
54,000▼ -2,000 w/w
net long · contracts
long92,000short38,000
 mm_net 54000 in [50000,70000) + OI falling
Net falling (-2000); longs -1000, shorts +1000. LONGS LIQUIDATING — passive exhaustion, often a bottoming tell, NOT a conviction signal. Do not read as regime change.
 2026-06-16
age 6d · 3p
MM_SHORT TRANSITION
38,000▲ rising +1,000 w/w
gross short · contracts
 gross short 38000 in [35000,55000]
Best conviction tell: rising gross shorts is the only conviction signal in the COT data.
 2026-06-16
age 6d · 3p
ETF_HOLD TRANSITION
3,960 t
global holdings
YTD flow-$500.0mlast mo-$1.2bn
 tonnes 3960.0 in band + 4 consecutive outflows 2026-06
age 21d · 2p
PRICE REGIME
$4,144▼ -7.6% vs 200DMA
weekly close
200DMA$4,485
 decisive close 4144.0 < 4300 (opens 3800) 2026-06-19
age 3d · 2p
CB_BID MANUAL HEALTHY
Firm
official-sector bid
OTC-adj net buy315 tquarter2026-Q1
 qualitative read: firm
WGC OTC-adjusted estimate; official trade data under-captures sovereign buying.
 2026-03-31
age 83d
Firing (TRANSITION/REGIME, counting): MM_NET, MM_SHORT, ETF_HOLD, PRICE